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More on iPhone & the Future of AT&T

Posted on Monday, Jun 18th 2007

As we approach the iPhone launch, more interesting data comes out to add flesh to our iPhone and the Future framework.

WSJ reports:


AT&T Inc. stands a good chance of stealing customers away from other wireless operators by carrying Apple Inc.’s highly-anticipated iPhone, two new consumer surveys show.

Two-thirds of mobile-phone users who are interested in purchasing the iPhone aren’t AT&T customers but would be willing to switch carriers to obtain the device, according to a survey in May of about 11,000 cellphone users by M:Metrics Inc., which tracks wireless industry trends.

The carrier with the most to be concerned about is T-Mobile USA, according to the survey, with 12.5% of its customers expressing a high interest in the phone; followed by 8.1% for Sprint Nextel Corp.; and 6.7% for Verizon Wireless. T-Mobile is seen as especially vulnerable because it has a high share of users in the 18-to-24 age group.

Overall demand for the device is massive. About 19 million people in the U.S., or roughly 9% of cellphone users, are highly interested in purchasing the iPhone.


The survey doesn’t even do justice to the real story, and still looks rosy. Apple has sold 100 Million iPods to (I am guessing) 80 Million customers. This is the market penetration segment for the iPhone. And most certainly, the segment is not all AT&T customers.

In fact, I would like to see this same survey focused on the iPod customers, and I bet, the numbers would look blow-away compelling in both Apple and AT&T’s favor.

Awareness will be 100% (against the 54% in this survey). Deferral of next wireless phone purchase decision will be at least 60% (against the 12% in this survey).

The risks of this Apple-AT&T windfall lies not at all in market demand. It is squarely in execution, and the product’s ability to meet the sky-high expectations that its arrival has generated.

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[…] T-Mobile is quite vulnerable to the effect of the iPhone, with most of it users in the 18-24 age group. The iPhone is bound to be a hit amongst this age group and the new generation and could hit T-Mobile hard. However, with reports pouring in of a deal with iPhone in Germany, its stock is doing well, ranging between $17-19, mostly looking upwards in the last 5 days. However, as is the case with all Apple deals, nothing is official yet, but the report says Apple would be launching the iPhone with T-Mobile in Germany, Orange in France and O{2 }in the UK. With such a deal with Apple, T-Mobile could compensate for its potential loss in the US. The cost of the phone for the German market is said to be 450 euros (US $612) and would start selling from Nov 1, 2007. […]

iPhone Carrier Competitors: T-Mobile - Sramana Mitra on Strategy Monday, August 27, 2007 at 10:33 AM PT