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iPhone and the Future: Synthesis

Posted on Tuesday, May 15th 2007

Over the last few weeks, we discussed a number of iPhone related issues that are key blocks challenging the rest of the eco-system today. Here is a quick synthesis of the key nuggets:

(1) It’s positioning as a laptop replacement device, which I believe will force most of the other laptop and cellular handset vendors to consider introducing one, causing ripples through the entire eco-system (RIM, Nokia, Dell, Motorola, Palm).

(2) The winners and losers on the chip side of the eco-system, and how each are likely to respond (Intel, Samsung, Marvel, Nvidia, Broadcom, ARM, TI, Qualcomm). It is clear, that whichever chip vendor comes up with the minimum power consumption, maximum hyper-integration chip has an enormous opportunity to tap into, whether or not the iPhone is a success. The new category, I think, WILL be a success.

(3) The iPhone’s leapfrog decision : The Operating System. [Read Frank’s original post, and my Microsoft post, as well as the discussion in context.]

(4) UI : Will the market accept Apple’s innovation?

(5) The GSM vs. CDMA debate, on which I need to do some more research. You’ll see a lot of questions raised in the discussion on Qualcomm, some of which I addressed further in a follow-on piece.

I haven’t even started investigating the telecom carrier side yet (except a piece on AT&T), nor much of the networking side (except a brief piece on Cisco) but nonetheless, my viewpoint is that the iPhone, not least for its immense ability to generate media attention, will send every player in the eco-system back to the drawing board. To rethink. To ask questions.

In this series, my first attempt has been to figure out what the key questions relevant to this market are. In the future, we can build upon the framework of questions, and add data, as data becomes available, and also enhance with additional research.

Updates:

iPhone & the Future of Qualcomm: Addendum

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[…] my recent iPhone series, I touched a lot of nerves when I said that Apple might drive the industry towards a global […]

Sramana Mitra on Strategy » Blog Archive » iPhone and the Future of AT&T Wednesday, May 23, 2007 at 3:46 PM PT

[…] Just 2 weeks left for the release of the iPhone. We have analyzed the eco-system in a fair bit of detail thus far. […]

Sramana Mitra on Strategy » Blog Archive » iPhone: Countdown Wednesday, May 30, 2007 at 7:00 AM PT

[…] Just 2 weeks left for the release of the iPhone. We have analyzed the eco-system in a fair bit of detail thus far. […]

Sramana Mitra on Strategy » Blog Archive » iPhone: Countdown Wednesday, May 30, 2007 at 7:00 AM PT

[…] the mobile world awaiting the arrival of the iPhone, which I believe is positioned as a laptop replacement convergence device, Palm has just released […]

Sramana Mitra on Strategy » Blog Archive » Palm's Fate Monday, June 4, 2007 at 4:10 AM PT

[…] off at this point. I guess, I have a bit more patience, and am curious to see what they do with a market disruption as big as the iPhone, which will open things up again, in 2 rather stagnated markets : laptops and […]

Sramana Mitra on Strategy » Blog Archive » Palm Gets Rubinstein Monday, June 4, 2007 at 11:20 AM PT

[…] has had a fantastic run so far being a cellular handset company. However, on June 29th, with the advent of the iPhone, the industry will switch, and start sprinting towards a convergence device, that will impact both […]

Sramana Mitra on Strategy » Blog Archive » iPhone Competitors : Nokia's Convergence Device Strategy Monday, June 11, 2007 at 6:29 AM PT

[…] of my readers, points out that I have not discussed Infineon in my iPhone and the Future […]

Sramana Mitra on Strategy » Blog Archive » iPhone and the Future of Infineon Friday, June 15, 2007 at 6:54 AM PT

[…] As we approach the iPhone launch, more interesting data comes out to add flesh to our iPhone and the Future framework. […]

Sramana Mitra on Strategy » Blog Archive » More on iPhone & the Future of AT&T Monday, June 18, 2007 at 6:05 AM PT

[…] A recent Forrester report puts a number on the projections for the laptop replacement convergence device trend we have been discussing in our iPhone and the Future series. […]

Sramana Mitra on Strategy » Blog Archive » 2 Billion Convergence Devices by 2015 Tuesday, June 19, 2007 at 6:03 AM PT

You offer 5 bullet items and exactly zero points.

(1) The iPhone is not being positioned as a laptop replacement.

(2) There is no new category, the iPhone fits into an existing category. The chip rules are the same as ever.

(3) In what way is the iPhone OS a “leapfrog”? Is it because it’s not optimized for small footprint?

(4) Depends on whether it really is innovation. There are serious questionmarks regarding its usability. How does this relate to your pretentious title “iPhone and the Future : Synthesis”?

(5) That’s nothing but a meaningless sentence fragment.

If these points are the most compelling ones for the iPhone, your prediction of others being sent back to the drawing board seems unlikely.

I guess having blog doesn’t mean you have something to say.

craig Wednesday, June 27, 2007 at 3:41 PM PT

I am still amazed that you consider your idiotic “iphone & qualcomm” article “controversial” rather than simply “wrong”. Now that I made the mistake of ending up on your blog I realize that many of your writings are like this…

amol Monday, August 27, 2007 at 4:31 PM PT

You should just correct your mistake and not come back!

Sramana Mitra Monday, August 27, 2007 at 5:27 PM PT

[…] have written extensively on the iPhone. You can find them under the iPhone and the Future series as well as the iPhone’s Component Ecosystem series. My last post on Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL) was […]

Apple’s Momentum Will Continue - Sramana Mitra on Strategy Monday, November 19, 2007 at 11:39 AM PT

[…] ST, Motorola with InfineonFollowing my posts on Texas Instruments, STMicro, ARM, Infineon in the iPhone and the Future series as well as the iPhone’s Component Ecosystem series, here is an update on the […]

Convergence Device: Nokia Aligns with ST, Motorola with Infineon - Sramana Mitra on Strategy Tuesday, November 20, 2007 at 6:34 AM PT

Indian mobile market will witness tremendous activities in the near future. All the mobile big shots have india as the primary target on their RADAR.
Regarding the GSM vs CDMA debate. Could you give more information on that.
the more articles or reports i read. more confusing it becomes.

Tomeo Thursday, November 29, 2007 at 11:40 PM PT

[…] had earlier covered ST Micro, Texas Instruments, and ARM in the iPhone and The Future series and the iPhone’s Component Ecosystem series. Let’s take a look at them based on the Q4 […]

Chips Look Cheap - Sramana Mitra on Strategy Monday, February 25, 2008 at 11:52 AM PT

I have professional experience since G5 days with Jobs, Power days. Trust me, iPhone is an innovation which has rocked US. Problem with Apple is global product launch and right price bands within the specific markets. Once Jobs moves into such a magnificent plan, count down to many “empires” would start!

~Sukhoi

Sukhoi Tuesday, February 26, 2008 at 1:40 PM PT
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